Concept proposal · Evidence discipline
Research and Evidence
Every number on this site traces to a register row on this page. This page documents how the fact-base was assembled and audited, classifies every claim, lists every source, and states plainly what could not be verified.
Methodology
How the fact-base was built
This concept rests on a fleet research effort of nineteen documents — country and macro analysis, diaspora intelligence, legal and institutional mapping in both jurisdictions, comparative program studies, per-initiative modules, an economic-impact model, a red-team review, and a dedicated evidence audit. A reconciled synthesis is the single source of record; where a module disagrees with it, the synthesis wins, and where anything disagrees with the audit, the audit wins.
All external verification was performed on a single documented date, recorded on every register row. The source hierarchy is explicit: official statistics and legal texts first; peer-reviewed studies second; program-operator and market-research figures only when labeled as such; press reporting last and always attributed. No figure reaches the public site without a register row, a source class, and an accessed date.
The public site renders from a structured content layer, and its build pipeline mechanically rejects any numeral that does not resolve to this register — the discipline is enforced by code, not by good intentions.
Claim classification
The labels and what they mean
Research claims carry one of five verdicts — confirmed, estimate, projection, proposal, or unknown — and public figures carry the display chips below. Two structural rules apply everywhere: contested numbers appear as labeled ranges with source and year, and announcements are never phrased as outcomes.
- Historical data
- Current data
- Calculated
- Estimate
- Target
- Scenario
- Announced
- Labeled range
- Verified floor
A defined blacklist of items that must never be published — stale figures, misnomers, unverifiable entities, and dated claims that failed verification — is enforced mechanically on every page in both languages. The audit found date errors, an entity misnomer, and several stale statistics in earlier drafts; all were corrected before anything was published, and the corrections are recorded in the research folder.
Limitations
What could not be verified
Three items remain formally marked needs-verification in the audit and are named here rather than hidden:
- The first-attempt pass rate of Jordan-educated nurses on the U.S. licensing examination — the decimal in secondary compilations could not be confirmed against the primary dashboard, so it is not published as a claim anywhere on this site.
- The membership count of Jordan's ICT association — a reported figure awaits reconfirmation from the association itself, so it is not published.
- The program-wide investment figure of the U.S. investment-promotion program — only the narrower, officially verified summit-specific figure is used on this site.
Known conflicts are disclosed rather than averaged away: ICT export figures range from ~$48M (World Bank balance-of-payments, 2024) to ~$225M (GIZ sector estimate, 2019) depending on methodology. The U.S. investment-stock figure is dated to its 2022 basis and is never shown without that year. Diaspora size is a labeled range by rule, and the audit itself is research-grade quality control, not a guarantee.
The full research folder — all nineteen documents, including the red-team review and the complete evidence audit — is available on request to serious institutional readers.
Statistics register
Every public figure, with its source
Each row below is an anchor: statistic references on other pages link to the corresponding row on this page. Rows that do not appear here do not exist on the site.
2001 FTA
The 2001 U.S.–Jordan Free Trade Agreement — America's first with an Arab country — eliminated tariffs on qualifying goods by 2010.
- Historical data
- USTR
July 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, the U.S. and Jordan signed an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade — the first such agreement in the Middle East.
- Current data
- USTR
$2.3B out / $3.1B in
In 2025, U.S. goods exports to Jordan reached $2.3B and imports $3.1B (U.S. Census Bureau).
- Current data
- Census
under $50M
…and the goods gap narrowed to under $50M in the first half of 2026 (Census, partial-year data).
- Current data
- Census
~$7.3B
Two-way goods and services trade totaled an estimated $7.3B in 2024, up 15% (USTR).
- Current data
- USTR
~$1.9B
…including roughly $1.9B in services trade (USTR, 2024).
- Current data
- USTR
20%
…before a 20% U.S. 'reciprocal' tariff was applied to Jordanian goods in April 2025.
- Historical data
- USTR
$1.4B + $500M
Announced alongside the agreement: Royal Jordanian's $1.4B Boeing 787-9 purchase plus $500M in leasing, and $300M+/year of planned U.S. raw-material purchases (White House, July 2026).
- Announced
$1B
Hikma Pharmaceuticals announced $1B in new U.S. investment by 2030 (June 2025; Ohio and New Jersey) — a commitment also cited among the July 2026 trade-agreement announcements.
- Announced
35%
FTA preference requires ≥35% qualifying value content and direct shipment (CBP).
- Historical data
- CBP
>1,200%
Official U.S. figures cite growth of more than 1,200% since the FTA (trade.gov).
- Historical data
- Calculated
$190M (2022)
U.S. FDI stock in Jordan was just $190M in 2022 on a historical-cost basis (BEA via State Dept) — the latest published figure.
- Historical data
- BEA
$1.6B
Jordan attracted $1.6B in FDI in 2024 (UNCTAD/State Dept).
- Current data
- UNCTAD
$1.45B/yr
Under the 2022 Strategic MOU, the U.S. committed $1.45B/year through FY2029; actual 2025 assistance was ~$1.8B.
- Current data
- State
~2.6–2.8%
Jordan's economy grew ~2.6–2.8% in 2024–25, with GDP of ~$62B and a population of 11.6 million (World Bank/IMF).
- Current data
- World Bank
5.6% target
Jordan's Economic Modernisation Vision targets ~5.6% average growth, 1M+ jobs, and JD 41B of investment by 2033 — official targets, not outcomes.
- Target
gap to 5.6%
Actual growth (~2.6–2.8%) remains well below the Vision's 5.6% target — the gap this concept aims to help narrow.
- Calculated
JD 642M
Pharmaceutical exports grew 15% in 2024 to JD 611M and a further 5% in 2025 to JD 642M (Petra/industry data).
- Current data
- Petra
~100–125K
Roughly 100,000–125,000 Americans of Jordanian ancestry or birth, per official U.S. data (2020 Census write-ins: ~122,000; ACS estimates: ~96,000–100,000) — with community advocates arguing the real number is meaningfully higher due to documented undercount dynamics.
- Estimate
- Labeled range
- Census/ACS
7,140
7,140 Jordan-born persons received U.S. green cards in FY2023 — a decade high — and 4,450 naturalized (DHS).
- Current data
- DHS
2,441
2,441 Jordanian students studied at U.S. universities in 2023/24 (IIE Open Doors).
- Current data
- IIE
≥2,408
At least 2,408 U.S. physicians entered medical school as Jordanian citizens (JAMA Network Open, 2020) — a floor, excluding U.S.-born Jordanian-origin physicians.
- Historical data
- Verified floor
- JAMA
~8,000 (self-reported)
The Jordanian American Physicians Association describes a community of ~8,000 (self-reported).
- Estimate
- REPORTED
~$4.4B
Remittances to Jordan reached ~$4.4B in 2024 — about 7.6% of GDP (World Bank).
- Current data
- World Bank
~700,000
an estimated 700,000 Jordanians abroad (media-cited figure)
- Estimate
U.S. lane open
Jordan's flagship diaspora program (IOM–MoFAE, May 2026) prioritizes Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Canada — the U.S. lane is not yet a priority in Jordan's own strategy.
- Current data
- IOM
~100 opportunities
Jordan's Ministry of Investment launched an investment map of 97 opportunities in November 2025, since expanded to ~100 (ministry reporting).
- Current data
- MoI
JBA
The Jordanian Businessmen Association (JBA) held its 9th diaspora investor conference in July 2026, Amman, with the Ministry of Investment and MFA (Petra).
- Current data
none
Jordan has never issued a diaspora-targeted bond (verified by search of CBJ/ministry instruments).
- Current data
€3B
…while the Jordan–EU Investment Conference (19 November 2026, Dead Sea) targets European capital behind a €3B EU package.
- Current data
Law 21/2022
Investment Environment Law No. 21 of 2022; the Aqaba Special Economic Zone's 5% income-tax rate; and the 2004 U.S.–Jordan tax treaty — each cited by name, from grade-A official sources.
- Current data
in force 2024
Jordan's first data-protection law (No. 24 of 2023) entered into force in March 2024.
- Current data
>$3.3B
Jordan's ICT sector generates over $3.3B in revenue across 1,000+ firms (U.S. ITA).
- Current data
- ITA
~25,000 (ITA)
~25,000 direct ICT jobs (U.S. ITA) — or 46,000+ ICT professionals per intaj's broader count; the two figures use different definitions and are never mixed.
- Current data
- Labeled range
$48M–$225M
ICT export figures range from ~$48M (World Bank balance-of-payments, 2024) to ~$225M (GIZ sector estimate, 2019) depending on methodology.
- Estimate
- Labeled range
0%
Jordan charges 0% tax on ICT exports.
- Current data
~105/116
Jordan ranks ~105th of 116 on English proficiency (EF EPI 2024) — a real constraint the design addresses.
- Current data
- EF EPI
4 plants
Four Jordanian pharmaceutical plants hold U.S. FDA-recognized certification, accounting for ~60% of pharma exports to the U.S. (peer-reviewed analysis).
- Current data
- STUDY
~225,000
Jordan received ~225,000 medical tourists generating ~$1B in 2024 (U.S. ITA Country Commercial Guide).
- Current data
- ITA
62.9% (2025)
Jordan-educated nurses passed the NCLEX-RN at 62.9% on first attempt in 2025 — 163 of 259 candidates — well above the 47.3% international average that year (NCSBN, 2025 NCLEX Examination Statistics).
- Current data
- NCSBN
~189,100/yr
The U.S. projects ~189,100 registered-nurse openings per year (BLS).
- Current data
- BLS
~$7B→$18B
…a market projected to grow from ~$7B to ~$18B by 2033 (Grand View Research — industry estimate).
- Estimate
- MARKET RESEARCH
$1.2–1.6B
The global Dead Sea cosmetics market is estimated at $1.2–1.6B and growing ~6% annually (industry market research).
- Estimate
- MARKET RESEARCH
~$135K vs $11–39K
U.S. software engineers average ~$135K vs ~$11–39K in Jordan (salary aggregators, 2025).
- Estimate
- Labeled range
665 → 1,000+
Scotland's GlobalScot took two decades to reach ~1,000 volunteer members — small and curated is the model.
- Historical data
- PROGRAM FIGURE
$256B+ announced
SelectUSA's Investment Summit has catalyzed $256B+ in announced U.S. investment projects and 130,000+ jobs (Commerce Dept) — announced, not realized.
- Announced
900,000+
Birthright Israel has sent 900,000+ participants at ~$5,000 each (program figures) — a free model resting on ~$85M+/yr philanthropy.
- Historical data
- PROGRAM FIGURE
~10–12% settled
Birthright Armenia converted roughly 300 of ~2,400 alumni into permanent settlers (~10–12%).
- Historical data
- PROGRAM FIGURE
$2.7B
Israel Bonds reported $2.7B in sales in 2023 — used here only as cautionary precedent framing; the fleet recommends against a diaspora bond.
- Historical data
documented pattern
Most small-country diaspora bond/fund attempts have failed on trust and governance (World Bank/MPI).
- Historical data
$700–850K/yr
A lean pilot envelope of $700–850K per year (2.5 FTE, virtual-first) — illustrative scenario, not a commitment, not a forecast.
- Scenario
- Estimate
~$5.75M / 3 yrs
A three-year program envelope of ~$5.75M cumulative — illustrative scenario, not a commitment, not a forecast.
- Scenario
- Estimate
~$4.3M/yr
A mature run-rate of ~$4.3M per year — illustrative scenario, not a commitment, not a forecast.
- Scenario
- Estimate
25 companies
One 25-company pilot cohort, demand-gated: at least 25 signed SME letters of intent before any cohort spend — proposed target, not a commitment.
- Scenario
- Target
105–160
105–160 verified founding members in Year 1 (~265–420 by Year 3), physician-anchored and voluntary — proposed target, not a commitment.
- Scenario
- Target
≥60%
A private-sector majority of at least 60% of board seats is proposed.
- Target
≤25%
No single funder would provide more than 25% of revenue under the proposed funding-ethics policy.
- Target
≥$5K
All donors of $5K and above would be published under the proposed transparency policy.
- Target
> $25K
Procurement above a $25K threshold would require at least three competitive quotes under the proposed published rules.
- Target
$3,400–12,000
Out-of-pocket U.S. entry costs for a Jordanian SME are estimated at $3,400–12,000 per company (fleet research model, illustrative estimate).
- Estimate
$25,000–40,000
Fully loaded pilot cost is an estimated $25,000–40,000 per company (fleet research model, illustrative estimate).
- Estimate
$750K–$1.1M
A 25-company Gateway pilot year is modeled at about $750K–$1.1M — an illustrative scenario, not a budget.
- Scenario
$5M per year
Base-case Gateway impact: about $5M per year in incremental exports — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
50 firms
Gateway design assumption: 50 firms assisted per year (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
50%
Gateway design assumption: 50% of assisted firms convert to exporting (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
$200K
Gateway design assumption: $200K average incremental U.S. sales per converted firm (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
25 letters of intent
Gateway demand gate: at least 25 signed SME letters of intent before any cohort spend (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
$60K
Gateway discontinuation criterion: cost per successful company above $60K with no declining trend (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
180 days
Gateway target: intake to first sale in under 180 days (design target).
- Target
60%
Gateway cohort target: at least 60% of cohort-1 live on a sales channel by month nine (design target).
- Target
$18 per order
Export House discontinuation criterion: fulfillment cost per order sustained above $18 for two quarters (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
350–590 orders per month
Export House contract-3PL break-even: roughly 350–590 orders per month — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
150 orders per month
Export House discontinuation criterion: orders below 150 per month after month nine (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
$170K per year
Export House contract-3PL fixed cost is modeled at about $170K per year — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
15 members at $600 per month
Export House membership break-even alternative: about 15 members at $600 per month — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
200–400 independent grocers
The diaspora wholesale route reaches an estimated 200–400 independent grocers (fleet research estimate).
- Estimate
$360–500K per year
Talent Network steady-state cost is modeled at $360–500K per year — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
800+ one-to-one meetings
Summit design target: 800+ pre-scheduled one-to-one meetings (design target).
- Target
40%
Summit discontinuation criterion: investor show-rate below 40% (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
$165–175K
U.S. software engineers: roughly $165–175K fully loaded, versus roughly $11–39K in Jordan (salary aggregators, 2025; labeled estimate).
- Estimate
60–75%
Engineering cost arbitrage of roughly 60–75% versus fully loaded U.S. costs (estimate on gray-source data).
- Estimate
$2 per $1
Investment Network base-case leverage: about $2 of commitments per $1 of cost — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
$10 per $1
Investment-promotion econometric benchmark: on the order of $10 of FDI per $1 of promotion cost (literature estimate).
- Estimate
150–200
Summit pipeline design: 150–200 pre-qualified U.S. and diaspora participants (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
$0.8M and 11 jobs
Digital services hub conservative scenario: about $0.8M in revenue and 11 direct jobs — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
$15M and 208 jobs
Digital services hub ambitious scenario: about $15M in revenue and 208 direct jobs — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
$3.75M per year
Digital services hub base case: about $3.75M per year in services revenue — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
$50M
Fund economics: small-diaspora private funds are marginal below roughly $50M in committed capital (fleet research estimate).
- Estimate
2% management fee
Median private-fund management fee remains about 2% (industry data via fleet research).
- Estimate
40%
Earned-revenue ratio target: at least 40% by year three (design target).
- Target
75%
Participant satisfaction target: at or above 75% (design target).
- Target
50%
Repeat-customer rate target: at or above 50% by month 18 (design target).
- Target
98%
Fulfillment fill-rate target: at or above 98% (design target).
- Target
8%
Returns target: at or below 8% (design target).
- Target
$4,550–6,500
Fellowship all-in cost is modeled at $4,550–6,500 per fellow for eight weeks — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
10 signed U.S. contracts
Digital services hub discontinuation criterion: fewer than 10 signed U.S. contracts within 24 months (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
$2M
Digital services hub discontinuation criterion: under $2M of hub-attributed revenue within 24 months (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
95%
SLA compliance target: at or above 95% (design target).
- Target
$580K per year
Export House dedicated-facility alternative: about $580K per year fixed — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
8,000–9,700 orders per month
Dedicated-facility break-even: roughly 8,000–9,700 orders per month — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
$6.50–8.50 per order
Contract-3PL fulfillment passes through at about $6.50–8.50 per order before postage (fleet research estimate).
- Estimate
$100–130K
A 20-person Fellowship pilot cohort is modeled at roughly $100–130K — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
$1,000–1,500
Proposed subsidized participant contribution: $1,000–1,500 with means-tested scholarships (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
90%
Fellowship completion target: at or above 90% (design target).
- Target
85%
Capstone delivery target: at or above 85% (design target).
- Target
$75M+
Development-finance anchors engage realistically at about $75M+ with institutional-grade governance (fleet research estimate).
- Estimate
$50–100M
Fund gate: $50–100M soft-circled including one development-finance anchor letter of intent (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
$25M
A $25M fund is not viable as a standalone vehicle under median fee economics (fleet research estimate).
- Estimate
$1.2M per year
Investment Network base case: roughly $1.2M per year in committed capital — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
$0.7M
Investment Network base case: about $0.7M realized as FDI after the announced-to-realized haircut — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
$610K–1.03M
Summit modeled budget: roughly $610K–1.03M all-in — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
15–25%
Summit revenue design: institutional support at 15–25% (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
$650K
Summit break-even near $650K — illustrative scenario.
- Scenario
$10M
Summit discontinuation criterion: committed capital below $10M by month 12 after two editions (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
1.75 FTE
Talent Network design: roughly 1.75 FTE plus a Jordan liaison at steady state (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
$700K
MENACatalyst's completed DAIMN diaspora-talent program ran at about $700K (comparable-program figure).
- Estimate
$10M–$500M revenue
Reverse-investment screen: U.S. mid-market companies at $10M–$500M revenue (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
30%
Reverse-investment discontinuation criterion: salary inflation erodes the arbitrage below 30% (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
80%
Shortlist quality target: share of shortlist with at least two verified signals above 80% (design target).
- Target
$25–50M
Summit year-one target: $25–50M committed by month twelve (design target).
- Target
sponsorships 50–60%, tickets 20–25%
Summit revenue design: sponsorships 50–60%, tickets 20–25%, institutional support 15–25% (design parameter).
- PROPOSAL
-$1,318.5M
The 2024 U.S. goods trade balance with Jordan was −$1,318.5M (U.S. Census Bureau, series c5110).
- Current data
-$802.0M
The 2025 U.S. goods trade balance with Jordan was −$802.0M (U.S. Census Bureau, series c5110).
- Current data
~$5.4B
Goods account for roughly $5.4B of the $7.3B two-way total — a calculated residual (total minus services).
- Calculated
7 leading states
Leading states by Jordanian ancestry (ACS 2024 estimates, wide margins of error): California 16,532; Texas 14,237; Illinois 9,522; New York 6,217; Ohio 6,153; New Jersey 6,146; Michigan 5,430.
- Estimate
analyst scores
Launch-point analysis scores (nine-criterion weighted methodology, analyst estimates): Chicago 4.45; New York/North Jersey 4.40; Washington D.C. 3.70; Dallas–Fort Worth 3.70 (rising).
- Estimate
- PROPOSAL
Source register
The sources behind the register
Register ids reference the statistics register above (statistic ids) and the audited claim rows of the evidence audit (prefix "row:"). All sources were accessed on the audit date; the full research folder is available on request to serious institutional readers.